Switch 2 Predicted as the Best Selling Next-Gen Console Despite Not Even Being Out Yet

Market research firm DFC Intelligence forecasts the Nintendo Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. This prediction positions the Switch 2 as the clear leader, even before its official release. Let's delve into the details of this compelling forecast.

Projected Sales: 80 Million Units by 2028

DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, labels the Switch 2 the "clear winner" in the next-gen console race. Nintendo is predicted to lead the console market, surpassing Microsoft and Sony. This projection stems from the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 release—ahead of competitors—and the currently limited next-gen competition. The report estimates sales of 15-17 million units in 2025, soaring to over 80 million by 2028. Such high demand might even challenge Nintendo's production capacity.

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these projects appear to be in early stages. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. However, the three-year head start for the Switch 2 (barring unexpected releases in 2026) gives it a significant advantage. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve substantial success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.

Nintendo's Switch is already a massive success, recently surpassing the PlayStation 2's lifetime US sales. Circana (formerly NPD) analyst Mat Piscatella announced on BlueSky that the Switch has sold 46.6 million units in the US, making it the second best-selling console in US history, behind only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is notable, despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.

Video Game Industry Poised for Growth

DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive picture for the video game industry. Founder and CEO David Cole states that after a two-year slump, the industry is set for robust growth through the end of the decade, having grown over 20 times in the past three decades. 2025 is projected to be a particularly strong year, fueled by new releases. In addition to the Switch 2, the anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto VI will likely boost overall sales.

The video game audience is expanding, with projections exceeding 4 billion players by 2027. The rise of "high-end gaming-on-the-go" via portable systems broadens accessibility. The growing esports scene and the influence of gaming personalities also contribute to increased hardware sales across PCs and consoles.